As India navigates its complex relationship with Pakistan, Gautam Bambawale, a former Indian Diplomat, shared his insights and recommendations on how India should proceed after the general elections in Pakistan. Bambawale emphasized that the current geopolitical landscape heavily favors India. With a significant power imbalance, India holds a clear advantage over Pakistan, both economically and geopolitically. He suggests that India should maintain a composed stance after the general elections, observing Pakistan’s moves cautiously without feeling pressured. .
He said this while releasing papers to the media on how India should navigate the complex relationship with Pakistan after the general elections that are being held there. The papers were prepared by the team of Pune International Centre, an independent think tank that deliberates on issue of national importance to present it to the government.
Bambawale said “ We would advise that India not be the first mover for any exchange or interaction with Pakistan. There is no onus on India to mend fences or even change its current policy of minimal l interaction with our western neighbor. Our focus on a stoppage to and cessation of all terrorist activity from across our western border must continue to be in place as well as our stated position that talks and terror cannot go together. We should not be the first movers in any relaxation of the current policy of minimal people-to-people exchange particularly in the area of sports or films.
Lt Gen Vinayak Patankar(Retd) who was also present said “We should not expect too much from Pakistan because we will always be their enemy number one.” He quoted Parvez Musharraf who famously said “Even if the Kashmir issue is resolved, India will continue to be Pakistan’s enemy”. For Pakistan, Kashmir has been the rallying point since 1947 for the simple reason that here was a nation that was born with no plans for the future.
He” said since it is the Pakistan army that calls the shot in their country, it makes sense to have army-to-army dialogue rather than on a political level. Another advantage of the army to army level talks between both the countries is that they do not get much publicized.”
Highlighting India’s substantial economic superiority over Pakistan, Bambawale emphasized the asymmetry in power between the two nations. He underscored India’s ascending position on the global stage, projecting to become the world’s third-largest economy soon. This economic prowess enhances India’s leverage in international relations, reinforcing its advantageous position vis-à-vis Pakistan.
Bambawale said Pakistan faces internal challenges, including economic crises, political instability, and strained relations with neighboring countries. He suggests that India should carefully assess these dynamics without rushing into any initiatives, particularly considering Pakistan’s historical involvement in fostering cross-border terrorism.
Strategic Approach to Diplomacy:
In terms of diplomatic engagement, Bambawale advised a cautious and gradual approach. He recommends refraining from high-level dialogues and instead advocates for initiating exchanges at the working level to gauge areas of potential agreement. He also encouraged maintaining pressure on Pakistan to curb terrorist activities originating from its territory.
Drawing from historical instances, Bambawale reflected on past conflicts and attempts at reconciliation between India and Pakistan. He underscored the role of the Pakistan military in shaping bilateral relations and advised considering this aspect while formulating India’s strategies.
In conclusion, Bambawale’s perspective offers valuable insights into India’s approach towards Pakistan. By prioritizing India’s geopolitical advantage, understanding Pakistan’s internal dynamics, and adopting a strategic and measured diplomatic approach, he advocates for a pragmatic and cautious stance in dealing with India’s western neighbor.
The paper also noted that Elections in Pakistan have always been a sensitive and controversial subject in many ways. Since the time of General Ayub Khan in 1958, spanning till General Musharraf in 1999, the country has seen 34 years of military dictatorship since its birth in 1947, marred with violent upheaval and disintegration of a so-called democratic process (Jehangir, 2023). Considering today’s context, Nawaz Sharif is expected to make a triumphal re-entry to Pakistan politics due to the strong underlying support for him and his party from the Chief of Army Staff (COAS), Gen Asim Munir (Javed & Drury, 2024). The elections, originally planned to be held within the 90-day window post-dissolution of the Shehbaz Sharif government in August 2023, saw delays well beyond the stipulated time and are now scheduled for 8 February 2024 (Livemint, 2024). As in the past, the Army is the one pulling the strings in Pakistan, but the fact that they have had to turn back to Nawaz Sharif who had been hounded out in 2017, indicates the utter paucity of political options left open to the Pak Army after their short-lived tryst with Imran Khan.
The Pakistan military’s supposed funding and support for cross-border terrorism in Kashmir and collusion in malicious schemes to counter its neighbor, as claimed by India, has always been a focal point of friction between India and Pakistan, which the latter vehemently denies (Zaman, 2023). Carrying this forward, the Pakistan Government has, at multiple times, attempted to normalize ties with India, but due to allegations of terror involvement and abetment, have yielded no fruition as India has remained firm on its stance of wanting tangible and actionable evidence of Pakistani actions in this regard (The Wire Staff, 2023). The reality is that it has been several Indian Prime Ministers from Indira Gandhi to Atal Bihari Vajpayee and even Narendra Modi who have made very serious attempts at rapprochement but the thorn in the works has always been the Pakistan Army. Vajpayee’s successful bus trip to Lahore followed by the Kargil incursions and war is a case in point. Hence, the very power structure of Pakistan at it has evolved over the decades with primacy even in Pakistan politics of the Pakistan Army has to be factored into all calculations that India makes. This is an important aspect of Indo–Pak dynamics to which we shall return.