By T N Ashok
The consecration of the Ram Lallah idol in the Ram Temple in Ayodhya witnessed by 7,000 special invitees and a public darshan next day on Jan 23 by 700,000 devotes could not have come at a better time for the BJP. It was literally a 30 year battle won by the BJP to regain a disputed land from another community after the infamous Dec 06 destruction of the Babri Masjid (by Kar Sevaks), constructed by the Moghul Invader Babar, on a site that reportedly was the site of a Ram temple.
Long histories of court battles and Rath Yatras by the patriarch of the BJP Lal Krishna Advani, who recently was conferred the Bharat Ratna, led to the happy finish of millions of Hindus who finally saw their favorite, most venerated god Lord Rama, often described by historians as a myth and a poem like Homer’s Iliad, but told by religious leaders as history of the avatar of Lord Vishnu, who occupies the 2nd place in the Hindu pantheon of gods after Lord Siva.
The consecration of the temple by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who was the charioteer of the then Deputy Prime Minister Advani, was one of the greatest event management in political history that swayed the masses, the reason why Advani called the PM ” A great event manager”.
The moment of glory is now being sought to be converted into a solid vote bank by the BJP-led NDA that will campaign on how Hindu pride was restored after 500 years of alien rule by the British and the Moghuls. The Hindu resurgence or the saffron surge will be evident in the northern part of India where Lord Rama is worshipped and the most important festival of lights Deepavali or Diwali symbolizes the return of Lord Rama to Ayodhya as the King after a 14-year exile in the forests which his father Dashrath ordered to please his wife Kaikeyi.
The consecration is being likened to another Diwali. And BJP, as the Prime Minister declared on the floor of the Lok Sabha will win 400 seats. That’s a brute majority for any party, only excelled by Rajiv Gandhi, when he got 424 seats to become the Prime Minister riding the crest of a sympathy wave after the brutal assassination of Indira Gandhi in 1984 by her own Sikh security guards as a revenge for the Blue Star operation in which tanks and soldiers rolled into the holy shrine of the Golden Temple to ferret out terrorists. The Sikhs considered that as Sacrilege on the holy premises.
History. Switch to present. BJP hopes to ride a victory wave on Ayodhya and Ram Lallah temple which has transformed the landscape of the area, but only 130 meters off the perimeter of the temple campus, lot of work remains undone, and other areas of Ayodhya are still backward, videos circulated on the internet show.
But that’s beside the point. PM Modi asserted during his reply to the motion of thanks to the President’s address in Lok Sabha that the BJP would garner 370 seats on its own and 400 with allies.
How do the numbers work out? BJP now has about 303 seats (37.7% – 229,076,879 votes) on its own and with allies scrambled a number of 352. Congress was reduced to 52 seats ( 9.6% – 119,495,214 votes). The DMK finished 3rd with 23 seats ( 2.3% – 14,363,332 votes). The Lok Sabha has 542 seats up for grabs in the upcoming 2024 elections. If BJP wins, which it is most likely to, numbers are still not confirmed, but it will mark a turning point in history for the opposition.
Modi will go down in history as the only opposition leader to win three consecutive terms in Lok Sabha. Rajya Sabha elections are due this month (February end) where 57 seats are up for grabs. This is the acid test for the BJP because this is where they lack the majority they need to pass legislation confirmed by the lower house Lok Sabha. The reason Rajya Sabha MPs enjoy a six-year term against a five-year one by the Lok Sabha members are elected by the people directly Rajya Sabha members are elected by the state legislatures of MLAS and LLCs and in the south BJP do not have a major foothold.
The 2024 RS elections is scheduled to be held as part of the 6-year cycle among certain state legislatures in the country in July and August this year to elect 65 members out of 245. States elect 233 and President appoints 12 nominated members.
In this scenario with the south not having the numbers for the BJP, how will the magic figure of 400 be achieved, considering the fact that its trusted allies Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) broke away in Punjab and the Shiv Sena severed ties with BJP in Maharashtra?
But a lot of developments have taken place since then. Bihar’s Chief Minister Nitish Kumar made a U-turn and came back to the NDA fold to retain power severing links with the Lalu Prasad Yadav-led Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). But Lalu is virtually out of action. His son Tejaswi has emerged as a major force. He and not Nitish is said to be described as the force in Bihar having generated a record number of jobs. Tejaswi is set to sweep the Bihar assembly polls in a couple of years.
BJP now has the support of Nitish Kumar in Bihar, it has Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh, and will get some seats in Himachal Pradesh, and in west Gujarat and Maharashtra is in its pocket, having split the Shiv Sena in Maharashtra into two factions – one led by the scion of founder Balasaheb Thackeray, Uddhav Thackeray and the breakaway Eknath Shinde group supported by the BJP led by Fadnavis, a former chief minister. Another former CM Ashok Chavan has joined the BJP.
A psephologist from southern India, who has been accurate with his predictions so far, gave me the election maths of the country. Says Sundram Nagaraj “ not possible was the answer a month ago. But today after the consecration and Nitish’s U turn , the answer is , Yes possible”.
PM Modi has never predicted numbers for elections in the last decade. This is the first time. Usually numbers would be thrown by his trusted lieutenant from Gjarat, Home Minister, Amit Shah who manages the elections with the ticket distribution for prospective MPs. Says Nagaraj that in today’s scenario, NDA is POISED to CROSS 400 seats and the INDIA ALLIANCE will be bundled out with 100 seats. Modi mocked the opposition in the Lok Saha asking “Will you at least get 40 seats, hinting at the Congress which now has only 52 seats, a party that ruled for 10 years between 2004 to 2014.
In 2019 in Maharashtra, BJP won 8 seats because of their vote cutting and INC won its lone seat of Chandrapur due to its vote cutting, they have the potential to spoil so BJP has to gear up their dalit parties like RPI (Athawale) which has not been seen ever since he was sent to the upper house. Apart from this, they have to retain their 2019 successful seats.
Let’s look at the numbers of 2019, in the North they lost nearly 16 seats in U.P. due to the coming together of SP & BSP and since it’s not there this time, they may regain nearly 13 seats from that, U.P. mood is really very upbeat and in the remaining states, they have to give 2 seats to JNJP in Haryana and Punjab if SAD joins they have all the more reason to be happy.
In Punjab, SAD lost to INC first and then AAP due to 10 years of anti-incumbency and as well as misgovernance, now SAD is out of office and Congress and AAP are going to face the anti-incumbency. SAD winning 2-3 seats in Punjab will help NDA in their MISSION-400. In 2019 BJP got around 131 seats out of 166 in the north, this time it is expected they may vacuum clean Congress in M.P. and CHATTISGARH as well thus taking their number to 145 and their allies’ number to 5 making as 150.
Last time the BJP polled almost 50% of the popular votes in the North and got almost 79 % of the seats. This time they NDA may get around 57% Votes and get almost 90% of the seats. COMING to the West Zone, which has 103 seats, they have to repeat their 2019 performance to retain those seats in Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Gujarat (BJP) and regain the south Goa and Dadra Nagar Haveli seats to add to their 2019 tally. SS (Shinde) and NCP (Ajith) may get around 10 seats. Last time the BJP got nearly 45% of the popular votes in the west and got nearly 73% 0f the seats, this time also they may retain that.
The North and West Zones account for 269 seats almost half the strength of LOK SABHA. Coming to the North East which has 25 seats, last time around BJP got around 34% of the popular votes and 56% of Seats, in all likelihood they may retain the same. Manipur riots will have less impact, in fact, the BJP may try to wrest the Barpeta seat from INC. As usual, 4-5 regional parties with 4-5 M.P.s may be with NDA this time as well.
Says Sundaram Nagaraj: I always count Bihar with East only, unlike many mainstream channels. East Zone has 118 seats in total, if at all the BJP wants to cross 362 (which is considered as 2/3 majority) and the NDA 400 they have to create the real magic in EAST AND SOUTH ZONES. In Bihar, BJP should contest 20-21 seats leaving only 10-11 for JDU and the remaining for allies.
Also, they have to repeat their 2019 performance and if possible improve upon it by winning the Kisangani seat, They have to retain their seats in Jharkhand and attempt to have a complete sweep, it is really a possibility because after the merger of Babulal Marandi’s JVM with BJP and the current anti-incumbency of JMM.
In Odisha they can retain and improve upon their 2019 performance by adding 3-4 seats. Coming to Bengal the current ground reports are anything but good news to the BJP supporters. BJP is not only going to retain the seats won in 2019 but also going to add another 5 seats in the areas of Suvendu Adhikari like Tamluk, Kanthi, Ghatal, etc. they may spring some surprises in Kolkata City as well. Their tally is likely to go up to 23 if the ground reports from Bengal are to be believed.
Last but not least the SOUTH ZONE workers of BJP have to toil relentlessly to achieve this humongous task. SOUTH is the real weak link for NDA, they can’t achieve its target of 400 seats without getting into alliance with TDP in ANDHRA and Stitching a Rainbow Coalition in TN, and winning at least 3 of the 5 seats they are focussing in Kerala and a minimum of 7 seats in Telangana, which is a possibility, if they don’t repeat the Hara-kiri of shifting the OBC Bandi Sanjay to Delhi then as an afterthought announcing that our CM will be from OBC ….so on so forth.
Huge Planning and Efforts are needed at the Ground Level in the Entire South. South has 131 seats BJP last time got 29 seats (if u want to add Sumalatha Independent then it is 30). In the 2019 Election BJP got nearly 18% of the Popular Votes and 22% of the seats (whereas Congress with 20% votes got only 21.3% seats). If everything goes well BJP will Sweep Karnataka with 28 seats for NDA, Says Sundaram Nagaraj: THIS time BJP may increase their vote share to 30% point and their seat share could increase up to 36-37%. All this is POSSIBLE